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Modelling in renewable energy projects as a tool for strategic decision making

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The most critical financial services in the energy due diligence services is financial advisory and specially financial modelling, as causing a decrease in financing costs and optimizing the finance structure. Financial modelling plays a part in both investment decisions and evaluation. 

In project finance, financial model allows a project-specific calculation that demonstrates all cash flows and presents all the outstanding performance indicators. Financial models help financiers through indicating entire funding decisions, providing flexible functionality for funding, forecasting production amount, reviewing tax calculations, creating master scenario and optimizing the project. Another benefit of financial modelling is that it provides input to sensitivity analysis.

For renewable energy projects, focus of the financial modelling is unit cost of production. In this context, financial modelling ensures calculation of the unit cost with considering different conditions. Outcomes of this process help determining the lowest levelized cost of energy in certain conditions and constitute the base of a PPA. 

Financial models can be divided into two depending on the stage of use and the details of the model. It is important to form operational models after the financing is secured and financial close models to be updated. In Project Finance transactions in Turkey, the usual structure is to use project finance financial close models as is for future operational phases that cause problems in both the financing and operations of the plant. With this respect of experience and a recent article by Matthew Bernath we would like to dig deeper into these models, and how to manage the transition. Two financial models can be stated as: 

  • Financial Close Model
  • Operational Model

“The financial close model is a model that aims to raise capital, comprehend a deal and finally reach financial close. This model is useful for not only equity but also debt providers in terms of understanding project risks and sensitivities. This makes the model favourable for financial close and hedging process, in addition being a powerful negotiation tool. Construction and operations begin after the financial close. Financial covenants and ratios are considered to measure in order to interpret the project, because project starts to create revenues and incur expenses. 

Operational model advantageous for events that happen at operational phase such as refinancing and sell-downs. In addition, operational model is useful for equity holders as refinancing or additional gearing are deliberated. 

Both models are helpful in different phases of the projects. The most common problem in the renewable energy sector is to continue to use of the financial close model during the operational period without creating a separate operational model. To convert financial close model to an operational financial model, there are several points financiers should pay attention. 

Hard-Coding Inputs

Inputs which cannot be changed once Financial Close have to be reached are hard-coded. This may include sculpted debt repayments, hedged rates or sensitivities built into the model for running scenarios during the funding process. It should not be possible for future model users to change these cells or any other inputs that have been ’hard-coded’ and agreed to during Financial Close.

Make Changes Easy

Inputs that do require changes or to be updated during operation (wind data or power generated, sales etc.) can be changed very easily and the place in which these can be changed can be easily found because tracking changes helps illustrating the situation. Anyone responsible for updating the operational financial model should understand exactly what and where they need to update assumptions with actual figures when updating the operational model.

Handover Process

Have a proper handover process and training to ensure the model builder adequately explains how the model works and what will be changing now that the model is being converted to an operational financial model. In addition, it should be clear what key ratios and outputs equity and debt providers expect to see on an ongoing basis.

Covenants

Ratios and covenants should be clearly displayed as the bank will be particularly interested in monitoring these.

Functionality

Cash flow waterfall have to be still functional in the operational financial model – this will be key to ensure that ratios are correctly calculated, and the bank can assess cash flows.

Dashboards

Build in an operational dashboard that will be useful for management reporting. This dashboard will also show when key events can or should occur.

Operational Financial Model Audit

Audit the operational model to give management and the banks confidence in the model. While this might seem like overkill, auditing a model that will probably survive the length of the project – be it 17 – 25 years, is extremely worthwhile and an easy decision to make.

Making the Operational Financial Model ‘Decision-Useful’

Of course, the list above is not extensive. All complications of the certain transaction should be considered when transforming a financial close model to operational. Following the above list will be provided to move forward a model that can be used to monitor a project and is decision-useful. 

Ultimately – every financial model should be decision-useful, i.e. it should be a tool used for decision making of both an operational and strategic nature. A Financial Close Model that has successfully been transitioned into an Operational Model will be both operationally useful for management report, and strategically important for key project decision making.”

As a result the modelling differences and points to watch out is pointed above. As a practitioner advisory service firm in financial modelling it is critical for project owners and corporates to outsource modelling work to an independent advisory company. This independence from corporate structures and decision lines and day to day operations will prove a successful conversion to operation models from all set financial close models. 

References

  • Matthew Bernath, “What is a Financial Close Model vs. an Operational Financial Model?”, 2019
  • EIA Publication, Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 
  • Ed Bodmer, Energy Financial Modelling, 2015 

Ozlem Kildir, Founder of Profinstance Project Finance Advisory Incorporation
ozlem.kildir@profinstance.com 
www.profinstance.com

Legal & Financial Solutions

EIB and Haizea sign €35 million green loan boosting European wind energy sector component manufacturing

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EIB and Haizea sign €35 million green loan boosting European wind energy sector component manufacturing

The European Investment Bank (EIB) and Haizea Wind Group, a Spanish company specialising in the manufacture of components for the wind energy sector, have signed a €35 million green loan.

The loan will enable Haizea to implement advanced manufacturing technologies, automate and digitalise processes and move forward with research and development applied to the manufacture and assembly of large metal structures for wind turbines such as wind towers, monopile foundations and offshore wind park transition pieces.

The project reinforces the EIB’s role as the EU Climate Bank, backs the development of a major renewable energy technology and the international competitiveness of Europe’s offshore wind industry, and strengthens the European supply chain for renewable energy.

“Loans like the one we are signing with Haizea today reflect the EIB’s commitment to innovation and the development of renewable energy technologies enabling us to move forward with the energy transition and strengthening the competitiveness of our companies,” said EIB Director of Operations for Spain and Portugal Gilles Badot. “A robust renewable technology manufacturing sector is vital to guaranteeing the European Union’s energy security and autonomy.”

This loan is part of the EIB’s innovation support and falls under its cross-cutting climate action and environmental sustainability priority. Given Haizea’s role as an equipment and structures provider to the energy sector, the operation also contributes to the REPowerEU plan’s goal of increasing energy security and reducing EU dependence on fossil fuel imports. This loan is backed by the InvestEU programme to mobilise public and private sector funds in support of EU policy goals.

Haizea Wind Group Finance Director Alvaro Quintana added: “The signing of this loan with the EIB is part of Haizea Wind Group’s goal of helping its clients work towards a more sustainable economy by supplying large metal pieces like towers, transition pieces and large-diameter monopiles – currently key parts of the offshore wind power supply chain to achieve the green transition. The trust the EIB has shown by signing with us this green loan will enable us to implement advanced manufacturing technologies and move forward with research and development applied to the manufacture and assembly of large metal structures for wind turbines.”

The EIB and energy security

In 2023, the EIB Group provided more than €21 billion in financing for energy security in Europe. In the same year, it allocated €4.5 billion to this goal in Spain, financing projects in areas including renewable energy, energy efficiency, power grids and storage systems. These investments are helping Europe speed up its transition to sustainable energy and reduce its reliance on fossil fuel imports.

In July 2023, the EIB Board of Directors raised the amount earmarked for REPowerEU projects to €45 billion. REPowerEU is the plan designed to end Europe’s dependence on fossil fuel imports. To boost financing for the EU manufacturing industry, the EIB will also expand the range of eligible sectors to include leading strategic technologies with net-zero carbon emissions, as well as extraction, processing and recycling of critical raw materials. The additional financing will be disbursed between now and 2027. In total, it is expected to mobilise more than €150 billion in investment in the target sectors.

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Berkeley Energy to fund €130m for sub-Saharan Africa renewables

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For Berkeley Energy’s latest Africa renewable energy fund, seven development finance institutions have committed €130m at sum.

According to Berkeley Energy, Africa Renewable Energy Fund II (AREF II) fund’s investor base includes CDP, CDC, FMO, Proparco, Swedfund, Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa and the Clean Technology Fund, part of the Climate Investment Funds.

AREF II has an ultimate target fund size of €300m. It will primarily target run-of-river hydro, wind and solar projects.

In addition, battery storage opportunities, across sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa are considerable

Luka Buljan, managing director of Berkeley Energy, said: “The successful first close of AREF II sends a clear sign of confidence that our hands-on, asset-first, technically orientated approach resonates with our investors and makes a material difference for the communities in which we operate.

“Our track record of delivering projects and strong investment returns means we are well placed to serve Sub Saharan Africa’s growing demand for clean, affordable and reliable energy.”

AREF II follows the full deployment of the predecessor Africa Renewable Energy Fund, which invested in hydro, geothermal and solar projects in Sub Saharan Africa.

 

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Finance for Renewables in Developing Countries Is on the Rise

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Global finance to developing countries in support of clean and renewable energy reached USD 21.3 billion in 2017. This almost doubles the level from 2010 when international financial flows were at USD 10 billion, according to latest figures of a new indicator under the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG).

The new indicator, jointly monitored by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), tracks global capital flows to developing countries in pursuit of affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

By tracing international financial flows to developing countries, the new SDG7 indicator aims to enhance international co-operation and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology by 2030. Despite recent fluctuations, the long-term trend for investment keeps increasing and could reach more than USD 20 billion annually in the years to come.

Between 2000 and 2017, total investment to developing countries for clean and renewable energy reached a cumulative sum of USD 138.9 billion. The total flows continued to grow since 2010, from USD 10.0 billion to USD 21.4 billion in 2017. Depending on the timing of large-scale investments in hydropower, these flows can vary considerably from year to year. However, the broad trend shows a fifteen-fold increase over the period of 2000 – 2017, reflecting an increased focus of development aid on clean and renewable energy.

While hydropower has historically received the lion’s share, investments in wind, geothermal and, especially, solar energy have grown significantly in the last few years.

Investments in hydropower accounted for about 60% of international investment flows in renewables in the first decade. Flows to other technologies were generally small, with most projects focusing on providing technical assistance or supporting small-scale infrastructure developments.

Since 2009, the share of hydropower has fallen to 45%, while wind, geothermal and, especially, solar energy has gained ground. The scale of projects has also increased over the period, from an average of USD 10 million per project in 2000-2009 to USD 19 million in the last four years (2014-17).

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