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Demand/Supply – Renewable energy with guarantees of origin (GO)

Ever since 1999, energy users in Europe have demanded documentation of the origin of the electricity they use, which launched an exponential market development. 470 TWh of renewable energy with Guarantee of Origin were sold and consumed in 2017.
Over the last years, a global market for renewable energy certificates has started to develop and equal tracing mechanisms are available also outside Europe.

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A renewable energy certificate is an electronic document which has the sole function of providing proof to a final customer that a given quantity of energy has been produced from renewable sources. The purpose of the renewable energy certificate system is to enable energy users to choose renewable energy to cover their consumption. This active consumer choice is also meant to create an incentive to increase the production of renewable energy.

In Europe the system for renewable energy certificates is named Guarantees of Origin (GO). One GO equals 1 MWh of total renewable electricity. they regulate the system under the EU renewable energy directive (DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC) and the EU electricity market directive (DIRECTIVE 2009/72/EC).
Ever since 1999, energy users in Europe have demanded documentation of the origin of the electricity they use, which launched an exponential market development. 470 TWh of renewable energy with Guarantee of Origin were sold and consumed in 2017.
Over the last years, a global market for renewable energy certificates has started to develop and equal tracing mechanisms are available also outside Europe.

Figure 1: Consumption of renewable energy with GO 2001-2018 Q3 (TWh)

The consumption of renewable energy with GO in Europe for Q1-Q3 2018 reached a total of 446 TWh. This represents an increase of 9%, comparing to the same period last year and 47% comparing to the same period in 2016.

Figure 2: Consumption of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe for the three last years (TWh)

For the last three years (2016-2018), there has been an increasing trend in the consumption of renewable energy with origin gurantee in Europe. Comparing Q1-Q3, consumption of renewable energy from wind has increased 59 TWh, hydro 42 TWh and biomass 23 TWh. For solar, the absolute change is only 16 TWh, but the relative change is very high; 524%.

Figure 3: Change in the consumption of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe between 2016 and 2018 (%)

Hydropower the leader

Hydropower is the most used source in consumption of renewable energy with GO. In 2017, hydropower covered 70% of GOs. Wind power covered 20% of the consumption.

Figure4: Consumption of renewable energy with GO by source in Europe 2001-2018 (MWh)

During 2018, the production of renewable energy is low due to weather circumstances. This had a direct impact on the issuing of GOs, as the issuing relates to the actual production of renewable energy. Comparing Q1-Q3 2018 with Q1-Q3 2017 shows that hydropower and wind power together decreased by 48 TWh.

Figure 5: Production of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe for the three last years (TWh)

Norway Case

Norway is the largest producer of renewable energy with GO in Europe. In 2017, Norway has 140 TWh of renewable energy with GO, mostly from hydropower. Norway alone stood for 43% of the total market supply of GOs. Renewable energy production with GO from the five largest producer countries represented 60% of the overall total in Europe. The second largest producing country is Italy.  It has 71 TWh. Italy is also the country with the broadest portfolio variety.

Figure 2: The five largest producers of renewable energy, in 2017 in Europe (MWh)

Forecast

The forecast for Q4 2018 indicates a new situation in the European GO market. The full year forecast for production of GOs in 2018 is 460 TWh. There’s a reduction of 13% from 2017. Comparing with the Q3- update, the production-forecast is up by +10 TWh. The consumption forecast for 2018 show 590 TWh. There’s an an increase of 25% from 2017. Comparing with the Q3- update, forecast increased significantly with +80 TWh.

Figure 5: Consumption and production of renewable energy with GO in Europe including forecast for Q4 2018 (TWh)

The increase renewable energy consumption and the big drop in  production will most probably lead to the rare case of a higher demand than supply.  The market has partly discounted this situation through the price increase during 2018. But it’s the future if the market gap is fully discounted into the prices.

Figure 3: Spot price development for GOs from Nordic hydro in the wholesale market 2008-November 2018

Substantial Increase

The substantial increase in the GO prices during Q1-Q3 2018 was most probably a result of three factors. These are increase in underlying demand,  production reduction of renewable energy due to low wind and sentiment trading. After a long period with increasing prices, the market corrected downwards in Q4. Improved hydro balance can partly explain the price correction. As the underlying demand is continuing to increase the bullish trend is expected to continue. At the same time there are some indications. These are the price levels are difficult to internalize for European electricity suppliers. This might reduce the possibility for a new round of rapid price increase. As per end of November, GOs produced in 2018 from Nordic hydro is traded at 1,20 €/MWh.

The future price expectations for GOs from Nordic hydropower increased along with the spot prices during 2018. 2019-prices are close to 1,70 €/MWh, and the years ahead price slightly above 2019.

Figure 8: Future price expectations for GOs from Nordic hydropower 5th Dec 2017 and 26th Nov 2018 (€/MWh)

 

Legal & Financial Solutions

EIB and Haizea sign €35 million green loan boosting European wind energy sector component manufacturing

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EIB and Haizea sign €35 million green loan boosting European wind energy sector component manufacturing

The European Investment Bank (EIB) and Haizea Wind Group, a Spanish company specialising in the manufacture of components for the wind energy sector, have signed a €35 million green loan.

The loan will enable Haizea to implement advanced manufacturing technologies, automate and digitalise processes and move forward with research and development applied to the manufacture and assembly of large metal structures for wind turbines such as wind towers, monopile foundations and offshore wind park transition pieces.

The project reinforces the EIB’s role as the EU Climate Bank, backs the development of a major renewable energy technology and the international competitiveness of Europe’s offshore wind industry, and strengthens the European supply chain for renewable energy.

“Loans like the one we are signing with Haizea today reflect the EIB’s commitment to innovation and the development of renewable energy technologies enabling us to move forward with the energy transition and strengthening the competitiveness of our companies,” said EIB Director of Operations for Spain and Portugal Gilles Badot. “A robust renewable technology manufacturing sector is vital to guaranteeing the European Union’s energy security and autonomy.”

This loan is part of the EIB’s innovation support and falls under its cross-cutting climate action and environmental sustainability priority. Given Haizea’s role as an equipment and structures provider to the energy sector, the operation also contributes to the REPowerEU plan’s goal of increasing energy security and reducing EU dependence on fossil fuel imports. This loan is backed by the InvestEU programme to mobilise public and private sector funds in support of EU policy goals.

Haizea Wind Group Finance Director Alvaro Quintana added: “The signing of this loan with the EIB is part of Haizea Wind Group’s goal of helping its clients work towards a more sustainable economy by supplying large metal pieces like towers, transition pieces and large-diameter monopiles – currently key parts of the offshore wind power supply chain to achieve the green transition. The trust the EIB has shown by signing with us this green loan will enable us to implement advanced manufacturing technologies and move forward with research and development applied to the manufacture and assembly of large metal structures for wind turbines.”

The EIB and energy security

In 2023, the EIB Group provided more than €21 billion in financing for energy security in Europe. In the same year, it allocated €4.5 billion to this goal in Spain, financing projects in areas including renewable energy, energy efficiency, power grids and storage systems. These investments are helping Europe speed up its transition to sustainable energy and reduce its reliance on fossil fuel imports.

In July 2023, the EIB Board of Directors raised the amount earmarked for REPowerEU projects to €45 billion. REPowerEU is the plan designed to end Europe’s dependence on fossil fuel imports. To boost financing for the EU manufacturing industry, the EIB will also expand the range of eligible sectors to include leading strategic technologies with net-zero carbon emissions, as well as extraction, processing and recycling of critical raw materials. The additional financing will be disbursed between now and 2027. In total, it is expected to mobilise more than €150 billion in investment in the target sectors.

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Berkeley Energy to fund €130m for sub-Saharan Africa renewables

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For Berkeley Energy’s latest Africa renewable energy fund, seven development finance institutions have committed €130m at sum.

According to Berkeley Energy, Africa Renewable Energy Fund II (AREF II) fund’s investor base includes CDP, CDC, FMO, Proparco, Swedfund, Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa and the Clean Technology Fund, part of the Climate Investment Funds.

AREF II has an ultimate target fund size of €300m. It will primarily target run-of-river hydro, wind and solar projects.

In addition, battery storage opportunities, across sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa are considerable

Luka Buljan, managing director of Berkeley Energy, said: “The successful first close of AREF II sends a clear sign of confidence that our hands-on, asset-first, technically orientated approach resonates with our investors and makes a material difference for the communities in which we operate.

“Our track record of delivering projects and strong investment returns means we are well placed to serve Sub Saharan Africa’s growing demand for clean, affordable and reliable energy.”

AREF II follows the full deployment of the predecessor Africa Renewable Energy Fund, which invested in hydro, geothermal and solar projects in Sub Saharan Africa.

 

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Finance for Renewables in Developing Countries Is on the Rise

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Global finance to developing countries in support of clean and renewable energy reached USD 21.3 billion in 2017. This almost doubles the level from 2010 when international financial flows were at USD 10 billion, according to latest figures of a new indicator under the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG).

The new indicator, jointly monitored by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), tracks global capital flows to developing countries in pursuit of affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

By tracing international financial flows to developing countries, the new SDG7 indicator aims to enhance international co-operation and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology by 2030. Despite recent fluctuations, the long-term trend for investment keeps increasing and could reach more than USD 20 billion annually in the years to come.

Between 2000 and 2017, total investment to developing countries for clean and renewable energy reached a cumulative sum of USD 138.9 billion. The total flows continued to grow since 2010, from USD 10.0 billion to USD 21.4 billion in 2017. Depending on the timing of large-scale investments in hydropower, these flows can vary considerably from year to year. However, the broad trend shows a fifteen-fold increase over the period of 2000 – 2017, reflecting an increased focus of development aid on clean and renewable energy.

While hydropower has historically received the lion’s share, investments in wind, geothermal and, especially, solar energy have grown significantly in the last few years.

Investments in hydropower accounted for about 60% of international investment flows in renewables in the first decade. Flows to other technologies were generally small, with most projects focusing on providing technical assistance or supporting small-scale infrastructure developments.

Since 2009, the share of hydropower has fallen to 45%, while wind, geothermal and, especially, solar energy has gained ground. The scale of projects has also increased over the period, from an average of USD 10 million per project in 2000-2009 to USD 19 million in the last four years (2014-17).

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