Project Management
World Energy Outlook 2018 examines future patterns of global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties
Major transformations are underway for the global energy sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalization of natural gas markets. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.
At a time when geopolitical factors are exerting new and complex influences on energy markets, underscoring the critical importance of energy security, World Energy Outlook 2018, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication, details global energy trends and what possible impact they will have on supply and demand, carbon emissions, air pollution, and energy access.
The WEO’s scenario-based analysis outlines different possible futures for the energy system across all fuels and technologies. It offers a contrast with different pathways, based on current and planned policies, and those that can meet long-term climate goals under the Paris Agreement, reduce air pollution, and ensure universal energy access.
While the geography of energy consumption continues its historic shift to Asia, WEO 2018 finds mixed signals on the pace and direction of change. Oil markets, for instance, are entering a period of renewed uncertainty and volatility, including a possible supply gap in the early 2020s. Demand for natural gas is on the rise, erasing talk of a glut as China emerges as a giant consumer. Solar PV is charging ahead, but other low-carbon technologies and especially efficiency policies still require a big push.
In all cases, governments will have a critical influence in the direction of the future energy system. Under current and planned policies, modeled in the New Policies Scenario, energy demand is set to grow by more than 25% to 2040, requiring more than $2 trillion a year of investment in new energy supply.
“Our analysis shows that over 70% of global energy investments will be government-driven and as such the message is clear – the world’s energy destiny lies with government decisions,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Crafting the right policies and proper incentives will be critical to meeting our common goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centers, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and elsewhere.”
The analysis shows oil consumption growing in coming decades, due to rising petrochemicals, trucking and aviation demand. But meeting this growth in the near term means that approvals of conventional oil projects need to double from their current low levels. Without such a pick-up in investment, US shale production, which has already been expanding at record pace, would have to add more than 10 million barrels a day from today to 2025, the equivalent of adding another Russia to global supply in seven years – which would be an historically unprecedented feat.
In power markets, renewables have become the technology of choice, making up almost two-thirds of global capacity additions to 2040, thanks to falling costs and supportive government policies. This is transforming the global power mix, with the share of renewables in generation rising to over 40% by 2040, from 25% today, even though coal remains the largest source and gas remains the second-largest.
This expansion brings major environmental benefits but also a new set of challenges that policy makers need to address quickly. With higher variability in supplies, power systems will need to make flexibility the cornerstone of future electricity markets in order to keep the lights on. The issue is of growing urgency as countries around the world are quickly ramping up their share of solar PV and wind, and will require market reforms, grid investments, as well as improving demand-response technologies, such as smart meters and battery storage technologies.
Electricity markets are also undergoing a unique transformation with higher demand brought by the digital economy, electric vehicles and other technological change. As part of its deep-dive into the electricity sector this year, WEO 2018 also examines what impact of higher electrification in transportation, buildings and industry. The analysis finds that higher electrification would lead to a peak in oil demand by 2030, and reduce harmful local air pollutant. But it would have a negligible impact on carbon emissions without stronger efforts to increase the share of renewables and low-carbon sources of power.
The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario offers a pathway to meeting various climate, air quality and universal access goals in an integrated way. In this scenario, global energy-related CO2emissions peak around 2020 and then enter a steep and sustained decline, fully in line with the trajectory required to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
But most emissions linked to energy infrastructure are already essentially locked-in. In particular, coal-fired power plants, which account for one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions today, represent more than a third of cumulative locked-in emissions to 2040. The vast majority of these are related to projects in Asia, where average coal plants are just 11-years-old on average with decades left to operate, compared with 40 years on average age in the United States and Europe.
“We have reviewed all current and under-construction energy infrastructure around the world – such as power plants, refineries, cars and trucks, industrial boilers, and home heaters – and find they will account for some 95% of all emissions permitted under international climate targets in coming decades,” said Dr Birol.
“This means that if the world is serious about meeting its climate targets then, as of today, there needs to be a systematic preference for investment in sustainable energy technologies. But we also need to be much smarter about the way that we use our existing energy system. We can create some room for maneuver by expanding the use of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage, hydrogen, improving energy efficiency, and in some cases, retiring capital stock early. To be successful, this will need an unprecedented global political and economic effort.”
Mature Capital founded in September 2022 based in İstanbul. The company’s main focus is Merger & Acquisition Advisory services in Wind Energy in Türkiye. Mature Capital is founded by Habib Babacan, who has 20 years of work experience in wind business in Türkiye, and held various C level, executive and managerial positions in Nordex Group, and Turcas Petrol (investor), and extensive network at every level in Turkish wind business.
The track record of References of Mature Capital for the first two years:
– Completion of The Sale of 25 MW Operation Wind Farm in Türkiye.
Carrying out all communication between buyer and seller, and management of negotiations between parties, technical due diligence of wind farm, and support on post-acquisition activities.
– Commercial and Technical Assistance in Wind Farm Acquisitions in Europe and US.
Giving support to Business Development teams of Turkish and international customers; to review turbine supply and service agreements, identify and interpret risks due to these agreements, to review and examine energy production reports and verify the energy yield from 3rd resources, to summarize technical aspects, difficulties, and potential problems of wind farms.
– Financial Model Building for a Green Field Manufacturing Plant in the field of Renewable Energy Component Production.
Preparation of financial model for a green field manufacturing plant with a 60 million USD investment budget in Türkiye. Together with investors technical team, we prepared capacity, machinery, human resource plans of investment. Investment teaser of this investment is also prepared to be shared with banks.
– Various other Consultancy Services in Wind; 10 different investors, 13 different projects completed.
In wind transactions, Mature Capital works with its partners for different due diligence works, wind site, micro siting, environmental, permits and legal assessments of the projects, and build the team and working partners according to the client requests. These working partners are both local experts in Türkiye, aswell as the representation and local offices of international consulting companies.
Mature Capital has a deep expertise in wind market structure, knows how to construct operational, greenfield or brown field portfolio, and has direct reach to shareholders of investors, and portfolio owners. Turkish wind market is a fragmented market of 12 GW operational wind farms with an around 200 different investors, and 80 GW of new pipeline of early phase greenfield wind projects with storage. With this market structure, Turkish wind market has an attraction for international investors, and Mature Capital is ready to give services for international investors for their growth in Türkiye.
If you are looking for right advisors for Turkish Wind Market, Mature Capital is yours. Let’s get in touch.
https://www.maturecapital.com.tr
https://www.linkedin.com/company/mature-capital-m/
Offshore Wind Energy
DNV tapped to help lenders and investors assess USD 40 billion worth of U.S. offshore wind projects
DNV is performing due diligence to enable the financing of eight offshore wind projects on the United States’ Atlantic Coast. The announcement follows news from DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2024 report, which forecasts that about 10 GW of fixed offshore wind is set to be installed in the U.S. between 2040 and 2050. While the industry has seen headwinds recently, and the latest Energy Transition Outlook has tempered its overall forecast for offshore wind, projects are still moving steadily forward, as reflected by the robust financing activity in the U.S. The offshore wind projects DNV is assessing collectively represent 13 GW of clean energy capacity, which would increase the U.S.’s total wind power capacity by nearly 9% if they become operational.
The technical due diligence DNV is providing to the financial stakeholders for these offshore wind projects is grounded in sound engineering judgement which is very important for developers, lenders and investors. This methodology is an evolution of the company’s proven approach that has enabled on-time financing for thousands of onshore wind, solar, transmission and battery energy storage projects in the U.S. and Canada.
DNV has also established local, in-house expertise around the intricacies of U.S. project finance and the structures that have emerged since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), such as transferability. Many stakeholders in the U.S. offshore wind industry are headquartered in Europe and rely upon DNV for its on-the-ground knowledge of the U.S. financing landscape. For these eight offshore wind projects, DNV is providing pre-commitment and construction monitoring due diligence to ensure all stakeholders understand the risks of the project prior to final investment decision and further capitalize on tax credit monetization opportunities from the IRA. These services are delivered within established financing mechanisms and processes to ensure on-time closing.
“So far, three of the eight offshore wind projects we’re involved with have reached a final investment decision and the balance is making rapid progress towards this milestone. Our customers are now getting steel in the water and creating benefits for local communities,” said Richard S. Barnes, region president for Energy Systems North America. “We’ve learned that the offshore wind projects getting financed and moving into the development and construction stages are the ones where developers can hit narrow installation windows because they’ve identified and mitigated risks around vessel availability, supply chain, and evolving regulatory requirements.
” DNV’s U.S.-based offshore wind team enabled clients to succeed in California’s 2022 offshore auction, providing in-depth assessments of the technical, societal, and environmental risks around offshore wind development in Oregon and Maine, and are addressing barriers on behalf of the industry to accelerate the deployment of high voltage direct current (HVDC) technology. This regional team is backed up by a global network of experts that has assessed 50 GW of offshore wind energy.
“DNV uses our advisory expertise to help offshore wind projects increase performance and minimize risks. Success relies on understanding the dependencies between different parts of the offshore wind value chain – this is why we take a full lifecycle approach to managing risks and reducing costs,” concluded Barnes.
This September, we celebrate 2nd years of Mature Capital – two complete successful years during which we accomplished projects acquisitions and consultancy projects with our hard work, dedication and determination for reliability and most importantly with our customers and partners.
Since its foundation in 2022, Mature Capital has given Merger & Acquisition Advisory services and various consultancy services in wind for Turkish and international customers.
‘Through our reliability and network, we have been able to quality and to-do-point tailor made consultancy services for our customers, added value to their investments and improved their decision making process within a very short period of time after the establishment in 2022. And that is a success story that we can be proud of!’, says Mature Capital Founder & Managing Director Habib Babacan.
The track record of References of Mature Capital for the first two years:
Completion of The Sale of 25 MW Operational Wind Farm in Türkiye.
Carrying out all communication between buyer and seller, and management of negotiations between parties, technical due diligence of wind farm, and support on post-acquisition activities.
Commercial and Technical Assistance in Wind Farm Acquisitions in Europe and US.
Giving support to Business Development teams of Turkish and international customers; to review turbine supply and service agreements, identify and interpret risks in these agreements, to review and examine energy production reports and verify the energy yield from 3rd resources, to summarize technical aspects, difficulties, and potential problems of wind farms.
Financial Model Building for a Green Field Manufacturing Plant in the field of Renewable Energy Component Production.
Preparation of financial model for a green field manufacturing plant with a 60 million USD investment budget in Türkiye. Together with investors technical team, we prepared capacity, machinery, human resource plans of investment. Investment teaser of this investment is also prepared to be shared with banks.
Various other Consultancy Services in Wind; 10 different investors, 13 different projects completed.
After going through establishment years, Mature Capital has full speed to expand its business with new investors from international markets. ‘We have completed initial working setup and ecosystem of partners and are prepared carefully for the new businesses. We are ready to drive the expansion of business, and to play an active part in entrance of international investors in Turkish wind market.’, says Habib Babacan.
We thank our investors and solution partners for the trust placed in us, for the constructive cooperation and for their courage to make make it possible for us to obtain market place in Merger & Acquisition Advisory services in Turkish Wind Market.
About Habib Babacan
Habib Babacan has 20 years of work experience in wind business in Türkiye, and held various C level, executive and managerial positions in Nordex Group, and Turcas Petrol (investor), and extensive network at every level in Turkish wind business. He founded Mature Capital in September in 2022 based in İstanbul. The company’s main focus is Merger & Acquisition Advisory services in Wind Energy in Türkiye.
Some Highlights About Turkish Wind Market
Turkish Wind Market has 13 GW of operational installed capacity with 300 different projects with around 200 different investor groups.
Turkish Wind Market has 26 GW of new project pipeline with 475 different projects, both green field and capacity expansions.
Fragmented market from number of investors perspective.
Opportunistic market for growth with new projects. For inquiries please contact with us. maturecapital.com.tr
Events8 years agoCanada and Turkey women working in the renewable energy sector in met
- Turbine Technologies7 years ago
GE’s Haliade-X 12 MW prototype to be installed in Rotterdam
- Operations and Maintenance8 years ago
GENBA is on the rise; another milestone passed by in global existence
- Genel11 years ago
EWT launches the DW61, It’s most efficient and high energy producing wind turbine
- Genel11 years ago
Internet of things will empower the wind energy power plants
- Turbine Technologies8 years ago
İğrek Makina focused on developing and producing Machine Tools and Wind Energy Turbines
- Legal & Financial Solutions7 years ago
Demand/Supply – Renewable energy with guarantees of origin (GO)
- Events7 years ago
Key Players from 10 Nations will Show Their Strong Positions at APWEE
- Turbine Technologies6 years ago
ENERCON installs E-160 EP5 prototype
- Turbine Technologies7 years ago
The Nordex Group receives first order for Delta4000 turbines from the USA
- Turbine Technologies8 years ago
ENERCON and Lagerwey together develop two new WEC types
- Genel10 years ago
Zorlu energy envisages a bold new future based on renewables
